Black Friday in gaming. Real discount or marketing trick with inflated prices?

Every year around November the same debate returns: is Black Friday in gaming a real deal or a marketing play with artificially inflated pre-promo prices? We decided to stop speculating and count it concretely.

We took the 100 most popular games (from our page-view ranking) and tracked their prices in the four main stores for 30 days before Black Friday 2024 and 30 days after. Data was automatically collected every hour by our scraper, so precision is good.

The results are interesting and mixed. Some categories really are cheaper on Black Friday. Some are more expensive than two weeks earlier. Some don't move a cent.

Methodology, because this matters

For each of the 100 games we calculated:

• Price 30 days before Black Friday (averaged across 4 stores)
• Black Friday price (cheapest from all stores on the day)
• Minimum price 30 days before BF (lowest price in the period)
• Price 30 days after Black Friday (averaged)

Then we checked:

• Was the Black Friday price lower than the price 30 days before?
• Was the Black Friday price lower than the minimum from 30 days before?
• Did the post-BF price return to a higher level or keep falling?

Overall results

Out of 100 games:

• 62 were cheaper on Black Friday than in the last 30 days (average discount: 22 percent)
• 24 were at the level of last 30 days (zero real discount, despite "promo" labels)
• 14 were MORE EXPENSIVE on Black Friday than in November prior

Those 14 more expensive are classic marketing trick cases: price raised 3-4 weeks earlier, then "lowered" on Black Friday to a level above the real October price.

What discounts hardest (and is worth buying)

AAA releases from 2023-2024. Average discount 35 percent vs October prices. This is the category where Black Friday is really a deal.

Specifics:

• Starfield: 70 USD -> 40 USD (minus 43 percent)
• Cyberpunk 2077 + Phantom Liberty: 75 USD -> 50 USD (minus 33 percent)
• Hogwarts Legacy: 70 USD -> 45 USD (minus 36 percent)
• Spider-Man 2 (PC): 90 USD -> 55 USD (minus 39 percent)

Strategy and 4X. Average discount 38 percent. Stellaris with DLC, Crusader Kings 3, Civilization VI, Total War, all dropped hard. Strategy publishers love Black Friday.

Indie games pre-2023. Average discount 30 percent vs October prices. Hades, Disco Elysium, Inscryption, Hollow Knight, all dropped well.

What didn't drop or dropped little

Live service and MMO. Average discount 5 percent. Destiny 2, GTA V (online), Final Fantasy XIV, practically no movement. Live service publishers don't need Black Friday because they earn from in-game transactions.

Fresh releases (under 3 months). Average discount 8 percent. Publishers don't drop new release prices because that would discourage day-one buyers. Dragon's Dogma 2, Stellar Blade PC, Black Myth: Wukong, practically zero discounts.

Multi-DLC bundles (Total Editions, Definitive Editions). Average discount 12 percent. Because "package value" is already a marketed price, further discount would be cannibalization.

What got more expensive (classic trick)

Listing the most egregious examples from our observations.

Far Cry 6 Complete Edition cost on average 25 USD in October. Mid-November the price jumped to 38 USD. On Black Friday the "promo" lowered to 32 USD. Marketing showed "minus 30 percent from MSRP of 50 USD", in reality 28 percent more expensive than 3 weeks earlier.

Assassin's Creed Valhalla Ultimate similar scenario: 28 USD in October, 43 USD from November 1, "promo" Black Friday to 34 USD. Apparent discount, actually 22 percent more.

Forza Horizon 5 least dramatic but still: 31 USD in October, 37 USD mid-November, 34 USD on Black Friday. Store earned an extra 10 percent during a "promo".

Conclusion: always check price history. A store showing "minus 40 percent from suggested price" doesn't mean "minus 40 percent from the price it was recently".

Practical strategy for Black Friday 2025

From the 2024 analysis we extract the tactic for this year.

Week before Black Friday: screenshot prices. All games from your wishlist, screenshot Eneba/Kinguin/Gamivo. Thanks to that you'll see if prices actually dropped or were artificially raised to fake a "promo" drop.

Black Friday weekend: compare honestly. Our comparator shows price history for the last 90 days. Look at that, not at "suggested price".

Don't buy on day one. Stores often roll out the "fresh" Black Friday price on Friday morning, but additional promo codes only land on Saturday/Sunday (newsletter, push). Saturday evening is usually the weekend's price bottom.

Whole of November, not just Black Friday. Last year 28 percent of games were cheaper in mid-November (Steam Autumn Sale) than on Black Friday itself. Black Friday isn't the only window.

After Black Friday: second wave. Between November 25 and December 5 stores often have "Cyber Monday" plus weekend after. Prices keep dropping on titles that sold poorly on Black Friday itself.

Specific predictions for 2025

Based on cycles we've observed for 4 years, we expect that in Black Friday 2025:

Real deals on: Cyberpunk 2077 + Phantom Liberty (we expect 40-50 USD), Baldur's Gate 3 (50-55 USD), Elden Ring + DLC (55-60 USD), Starfield (30-40 USD), Hogwarts Legacy (28-35 USD).

Unlikely to drop: Black Myth Wukong, Stellar Blade (fresh), GTA VI Pre-Order (zero chance), all titles released in October/November 2025.

Artificially inflated prices: probably again the latest Far Cry, latest AC, latest Forza. Three Ubisoft series plus Microsoft Forza are classic perpetrators of this trick.

What to do if you bought before Black Friday

Two strategies if you planned something before Black Friday and turns out the same game is cheaper during BF.

Strategy 1: Check store refund terms. Some stores (mainly Eneba) have a "price match" 14-day policy. If the price drops within 14 days of purchase, they refund the difference. Just an email with link to the new offer.

Strategy 2: Refund + repurchase. If the store has no price match but has a 14-day refund without reason, you can refund the purchase and buy again at the new price. Time lost: 1 hour. Savings: sometimes 15-30 USD.

Black Friday in gaming is an interesting phenomenon. Generally worth it, but only if you know how to tell real discount from a marketing trick. With data in hand the difference is fairly easy to see. Without data you get fooled by a store that knows the market much better than you.

What Black Friday does to our comparator

Last observation, because this is our backyard. On Black Friday, traffic on the comparator jumps 8x versus a normal day. Most questions boil down to "is this actually the best price". The answer is usually complex because "best price" depends on time horizon.

Over the last 7 days? Black Friday usually wins.

Over the last 30 days? Black Friday wins in 62 percent of cases.

Over the last 6 months? Black Friday wins only in 35 percent of cases, because most games had an earlier moment (Summer Sale, Autumn Sale, sequel release) with a lower price.

Over a year? Black Friday is the best only in 18 percent of cases.

Meaning: Black Friday is good, but far from "best price of the year". For most games it's better to catch a Summer Sale or a specific mid-year flash promo than wait until November.

Our comparator shows all of this in the price history panel of each game. Check before you click "buy" on Black Friday.